32.03 Research Episode — Japan's Competitive Reset

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32.03 Research Episode — Japan’s Competitive Reset

Source material: 31.01 Mizuho Industry Research, 31.02 SMBC Industry Trends, 31.03 Japan Research Institute, 31.04 JETRO Reports & Statistics, 31.05 Daiwa Institute of Research

Recorded: 2025-11-27

Japan’s major research houses are converging on the same question: can the country convert labour shortages, green mandates, and tariff shocks into a competitive edge by 2030? This deck stitches their latest outlooks into one storyline for Finbiz briefings.

Narrative beats

1. Labour and energy as growth catalysts

  • Mizuho Industry Research Vol. 78 reframes labour shortages and energy constraints as investable themes, highlighting automation, reskilling, and distributed grids.
  • DIR’s 2025 Economic Analysis series (minimum wage, human capital, DX) shows policy incentives and corporate spending finally lining up.
  • Talking point: productivity gains hinge on turning human-capital reform into higher-value services instead of chasing factory-only automation.

2. Election shocks and supply-chain rewiring

  • SMBC’s global risk decks model Trump-era tariff proposals, EU CBAM revisions, and SAF rules with revenue sensitivity tables.
  • JETRO quick surveys capture U.S. subsidiaries’ contingency plans, while regional business-condition surveys flag ASEAN manufacturing pivots.
  • Talking point: treat 2025–2026 as stress-test years for exporter margins and inbound tourism; diversify markets before policy shocks land.

3. Green policy as export engine

  • Mizuho and SMBC both place CCUS, hydrogen, and power-grid upgrades at the centre of their growth forecasts.
  • JETRO’s standards tracker maps evolving certification regimes across Europe and Asia so Japanese suppliers can cost compliance into bids.
  • Talking point: upstream suppliers should package regulatory know-how alongside hardware to stay indispensable.

4. Data-informed Asia expansion

  • JRI’s Asia Monthly and SMBC’s Asia Topics highlight demographic decline, SAF adoption, and infrastructure pipelines across ASEAN.
  • JETRO’s FY2024 ASEAN survey quantifies optimism and hiring plans; DIR’s tourism coverage shows where inbound spending is accelerating.
  • Talking point: prioritise Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand where demand growth and policy incentives align.

How to use this episode

  1. Refresh financial models with DIR’s latest GDP and inflation assumptions so dashboards reflect the shared baseline.
  2. Compile a tariff-impact playbook by pairing SMBC scenarios with JETRO survey data before the next board review.
  3. Build a decarbonisation deal tracker that blends Mizuho sector notes with JETRO certification updates to flag bidding windows.
  4. Share standout anecdotes or data tables with the owners of 32.01 Amazon Japan’s Convenience and 32.02 Don Quijote’s Experiential Retail Playbook when retailer sentiment needs macro context.

Linked notes

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